Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Humid tropical vertebrates are at lower risk of extinction and population decline in forests with higher structural integrity.

Reducing deforestation underpins global biodiversity conservation efforts. However, this focus on retaining forest cover overlooks the multitude of anthropogenic pressures that can degrade forest quality and imperil biodiversity. We use remotely sensed indices of tropical rainforest structural condition and associated human pressures to quantify the relative importance of forest cover, structural condition and integrity (the cumulative effect of condition and pressures) on vertebrate species extinction risk and population trends across the global humid tropics. We found that tropical rainforests of high integrity (structurally intact and under low pressures) were associated with lower likelihood of species being threatened and having declining populations, compared with forest cover alone (without consideration of condition and pressures). Further, species were more likely to be threatened or have declining populations if their geographic ranges contained high proportions of degraded forest than if their ranges contained lower proportions of forest cover but of high quality. Our work suggests that biodiversity conservation policies to preserve forest integrity are now urgently required alongside ongoing efforts to halt deforestation in the hyperdiverse humid tropics.

Tropical forests are home to over half of the world's vertebrate species.

Tropical forests are renowned for their astonishing diversity of life, but the fundamental question of how many species occur in tropical forests remains unanswered. Using geographic range maps and data on species habitat associations, we determined that tropical forests harbor 62% of global terrestrial vertebrate species, more than twice the number found in any other terrestrial biome on Earth. Up to 29% of global vertebrate species are endemic to tropical forests, with more than 20% of these species at risk of extinction. Humid tropical forests (also known as tropical rainforests) and the Neotropics dominate as centers of species diversity, harboring more than 90% and nearly half of all tropical forest vertebrates, respectively. To maintain the biodiversity that underpins the ecosystem functions and services essential for human well-being, we emphasize the critical importance of environmental policies aimed at reducing tropical deforestation and mitigating deleterious anthropogenic pressures on these imperiled ecosystems.

Thermal tolerance and the importance of microhabitats for Andean frogs in the context of land use and climate change.

Global warming is having impacts across the Tree of Life. Understanding species' physiological sensitivity to temperature change and how they relate to local temperature variation in their habitats is crucial to determining vulnerability to global warming. We ask how species' vulnerability varies across habitats and elevations, and how climatically buffered microhabitats can contribute to reduce their vulnerability. We measured thermal sensitivity (critical thermal maximum-CTmax ) of 14 species of Pristimantis frogs inhabiting young and old secondary, and primary forests in the Colombian Andes. Exposure to temperature stress was measured by recording temperature in the understorey and across five microhabitats. We determined frogs' current vulnerability across habitats, elevations and microhabitats accounting for phylogeny and then ask how vulnerability varies under four warming scenarios: +1.5, +2, +3 and +5°C. We found that CTmax was constant across species regardless of habitat and elevation. However, species in young secondary forests are expected to become more vulnerable because of increased exposure to higher temperatures. Microhabitat variation could enable species to persist within their thermal temperature range as long as regional temperatures do not surpass +2°C. The effectiveness of microhabitat buffering decreases with a 2-3°C increase, and is almost null under a 5°C temperature increase. Microhabitats will provide thermal protection to Andean frog communities from climate change by enabling tracking of suitable climates through short distance movement. Conservation strategies, such as managing landscapes by preserving primary forests and allowing regrowth and reconnection of secondary forest would offer thermally buffered microhabitats and aid in the survival of this group.

Para determinar la vulnerabilidad de las especies al calentamiento global es indispensable considerar la tolerancia fisiológica de las especies al cambio de temperatura y las condiciones ambientales a las que están expuestas. En este estudio exploramos la vulnerabilidad de especies a través de diferentes hábitats y altitudes y examinamos si ciertos microhábitats contribuyen a reducir la vulnerabilidad al calentamiento global. Medimos la tolerancia térmica (CTmax ) de catorce especies de ranas Pristimantis en bosques secundarios jóvenes y viejos, y bosques primarios en los Andes tropicales. Registramos la temperatura a la que estas especies están expuestas en el sotobosque así como dentro de cinco microhábitats. Usando CTmax y las temperaturas a las que están expuestas, determinamos la vulnerabilidad de las especies en diferentes hábitats, elevaciones y microhábitats. También preguntamos cómo cambiará esta vulnerabilidad si la temperatura incrementa: 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C y 5°C. CTmax fue constante en todos los hábitats y elevaciones. Las especies de bosques secundarios jóvenes son más vulnerables pues están expuestas a temperaturas más altas. Al utilizar microhábitats, las especies estarán protegidas si el aumento de temperatura no supera los + 2°C. Todos los microhábitats seguirán proporcionando refugio térmico si la temperatura aumenta 1.5°C, pero esta protección térmica disminuirá si la temperatura aumenta 2-3°C y será casi nula con un aumento de temperatura de 5°C. Los microhábitats proporcionarán protección térmica a la comunidad de ranas de los Andes contra el cambio climático. Estrategias de conservación, como la regeneración natural y la reconexión de bosques secundarios y la preservación de bosques primarios, ayudaría a la supervivencia de las ranas al tener microhábitats que ofrecen refugio térmico.

Phylogenetic and Trait-Based Prediction of Extinction Risk for Data-Deficient Amphibians.

Amphibians are among the most highly threatened lineages, with at least 2,000 species estimated to be in danger of extinction [1, 2]. Alarmingly, another ∼2,200 species (∼25% of all ∼7,900 known species) are data deficient or not evaluated (hereinafter termed data deficient) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [1]. Without an estimate of their status, data-deficient species are usually overlooked in conservation planning and resource allocation [3]. Amphibians have the highest proportion of data-deficient species of any vertebrate group [1, 4], which highlights the need to estimate their threat status considering potentially imminent extinctions. We apply a trait-based spatio-phylogenetic statistical framework [5] to predict threat status for data-deficient species. Because ecological, geographical, and evolutionary attributes increase extinction risk [6, 7], we used geographic distribution data [1, 8], phylogenetically imputed ecological traits, and an amphibian phylogeny [9] to provide initial baseline predictions. We estimate that half of the ∼2,200 data-deficient species are threatened with extinction (vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered), primarily in the Neotropics and Southeast Asia. This increases the number of amphibian species estimated to be threatened with extinction by ∼50%. Of these, we predict that ∼500 species are endangered or critically endangered, and three may be extinct already. We highlight families that are most at risk and suggest where urgent conservation is needed to avert their loss. We show that some of the most vulnerable species may also be the most poorly known and offer an analytical framework for preliminary analysis of their threat status in the face of deficient empirical data.

A pantropical analysis of the impacts of forest degradation and conversion on local temperature.

Temperature is a core component of a species' fundamental niche. At the fine scale over which most organisms experience climate (mm to ha), temperature depends upon the amount of radiation reaching the Earth's surface, which is principally governed by vegetation. Tropical regions have undergone widespread and extreme changes to vegetation, particularly through the degradation and conversion of rainforests. As most terrestrial biodiversity is in the tropics, and many of these species possess narrow thermal limits, it is important to identify local thermal impacts of rainforest degradation and conversion. We collected pantropical, site-level (<1 ha) temperature data from the literature to quantify impacts of land-use change on local temperatures, and to examine whether this relationship differed aboveground relative to belowground and between wet and dry seasons. We found that local temperature in our sample sites was higher than primary forest in all human-impacted land-use types (N = 113,894 daytime temperature measurements from 25 studies). Warming was pronounced following conversion of forest to agricultural land (minimum +1.6°C, maximum +13.6°C), but minimal and nonsignificant when compared to forest degradation (e.g., by selective logging; minimum +1°C, maximum +1.1°C). The effect was buffered belowground (minimum buffering 0°C, maximum buffering 11.4°C), whereas seasonality had minimal impact (maximum buffering 1.9°C). We conclude that forest-dependent species that persist following conversion of rainforest have experienced substantial local warming. Deforestation pushes these species closer to their thermal limits, making it more likely that compounding effects of future perturbations, such as severe droughts and global warming, will exceed species' tolerances. By contrast, degraded forests and belowground habitats may provide important refugia for thermally restricted species in landscapes dominated by agricultural land.